For most of the last decade, the mid-range jumper was treated as the least efficient shot in basketball — a shot analytics departments actively coached players away from in favor of three-pointers and shots at the rim.
This season, several contending teams have quietly increased their mid-range volume, citing late-game situations where a contested three carries too much risk and a clean look at the rim isn't available.
"The math says three is better on average. Averages don't shoot free throws in the last two minutes of a tied game." — Assistant coach, playoff-contending team
Analytics staff aren't abandoning their models — they're refining them, building situational adjustments for clock pressure and defensive coverage that a season-long shooting percentage doesn't capture.
Whether the shift becomes a league-wide trend or stays a late-game wrinkle for a handful of teams remains to be seen heading into the postseason.
